NARCliM climate modelling for the ACT

About the NARCliM Project

NARCliM is led by the NSW Government with support from the Australian Capital Territory, South Australia, Victoria and Western Australia governments, as well as National Computational Infrastructure, the University of New South Wales and Murdoch University.

NARCliM creates detailed, local climate change projections and information for public use. It brings together globally recognised science and multidisciplinary expertise. NARCliM is co-designed with end-users and stakeholders to meet the needs of users.

NARCliM can be used in many ways, including to:

• assess climate risks such as bushfire, floods, droughts and heatwaves
• inform planning and development decisions
• update policy
• future-proof infrastructure and businesses.

You can read more about the project on AdaptNSW – About NARCliM.

Guidance and resources on the use of NARCliM are available on:

• AdaptNSW – Using NARCliM data
• AdaptNSW – NARCliM guidance and resources

NARCliM2.0 Projections

NARCliM2.0 is the third and most recent generation of climate projections. It benefits from of several design enhancements and technical and computational improvements.

NARCliM2.0 currently delivers climate projections for two emissions scenarios. The scenarios are also used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (2021).

• Low-emissions (SSP1-2.6) with a global transition towards sustainable and equitable development. Global warming reaches an estimated 1.8°C by 2081-2100, relative to the 1850-1900 average.
• Medium-emissions (SSP2-4.5) with slow and uneven progress towards sustainability and equitable development. Global warming reaches an estimated 2.7°C by 2081-2100, relative to the 1850 to 1900 average.
• High-emissions (SSP3-7.0) with regional conflict and development. Countries do not collaborate on climate change or sustainable and equitable development. Global warming reaches an estimated 3.6°C by 2081-2100, relative to the 1850-1900 average.

NARCliM2.0 projections are relative to a baseline of the average climate from 1990 to 2009. Projections are provided for a large number of climate variables including:

• temperature
• precipitation
• evaporation
• humidity
• air pressure
• wind speed
• cloud cover

NARCliM2.0 climate change projection data is available on:

• AdaptNSW – Interactive Map
• NSW Climate Data Portal

ACT Climate Change Projections

The ACT NARCliM Climate Change Snapshot (PDF 21.3MB) summarises the NARCliM2.0 climate change projections for the ACT. It presents projections for both low, medium, and high emissions scenarios in 2050 (2040-2059 average) and 2090 (2080-2099 average). The following key climate variables are presented:

• Temperature (average, maximum, minimum)
• Hot days (above 35°C)
• Cold nights (below 2°C)
• Average rainfall (annual and seasonal)
• Severe fire weather (Forest Fire Danger Index above 50)

The projections are relative to the average climate from 1990 to 2009 and include:

• Average temperatures will continue to increase throughout this century. By 2090, average temperature is projected to rise by around 1.2°C under a low emissions scenario and around 3.7°C under a high emissions scenario.
• The annual number of hot days 35°C and above will increase. By 2090, under a high-emissions scenario, Canberra is projected to experience more than 5 times the annual number of hot days.
• The annual number of cold nights below 2°C will decrease. By 2090, under a high-emissions scenario, cold nights are projected to reduce by more than 50% in alpine areas of Namadgi National Park and more than 70% in Canberra.
• Average annual rainfall is projected to slightly decrease. Seasonal rainfall will remain variable with the greatest decreases in spring. Under a high emissions scenario, average spring rainfall could decrease by around 22% across the ACT by 2090.
• The annual number of severe fire weather days will increase. By 2090, under a high-emissions scenario, the number of severe fire weather days on Canberra’s urban fringe are projected to more than triple.

Additional climate change projections for the ACT are available on:

• AdaptNSW – ACT region for a summary of the ACT context and climate change projections.
• AdaptNSW – Interactive Map for additional ACT projections including more years and seasonal data.