Energy Transition Modelling

ACT Government has commissioned several independent reports to understand the impact of different transition options, as well as costs to transition.

This includes the impact on gas and electricity consumption, prices, and distribution networks and how they impact different people and types of buildings.

Retail Price Impacts of the Gas Transition

Modelling of the future price of gas and electricity has been undertaken by the global professional services company, GHD in 2021-22. The modelling showed that based on existing consumer trends and government policy, gas consumption is likely to decrease by 60% by 2045, while there will likely be about a 21% increase in demand for electricity. These findings will help to inform the approach taken in the Integrated Energy Plan (IEP)

Retail gas prices are expected to increase by around 19 per cent over the period 2022-2029, adding approximately $220 to the annual gas bill for the average household in 2029. The overwhelming drivers of gas price increases over this period will be the international price of gas (wholesale costs) and the cost of maintaining and moving gas through the ACT gas network (distribution cost). Modelling by GHD demonstrates that existing government policies are not expected to have a material impact on household energy prices over the period 2022-2029.

The ACT Government has reviewed the outcomes of the modelling and considered the impacts that current policy and market trends will have on the ACT electricity and gas distributor, Evoenergy, particularly over the next 10 years. The Utility Impact Statement outlines the ACT Government’s position on expected network impacts of the current transition pathway and indicates government expectations that may be placed upon Evoenergy to support our pathway to electrification.

Explore the modelling

Reports that have informed the pathway to electrification

Electrification of the ACT will require transitioning over 130,000 ACT households   from gas to high efficiency electric appliances for space and water heating and cooking.

The Integrated Energy Plan prioritises a fair and equitable transition to net zero as a key principle in electrifying the ACT. In 2023 research was undertaken by Common Capital to explore the costs, benefits, and policy options for government to support low‐income households to electrify their homes. This report recommends government prioritise assistance for those in the greatest need. The findings of the report have informed the development of the Integrated Energy Plan.

Read more about the Common Capital Report - Energy equity in electrifying ACT households [PDF 13.5 MB].

The ACT Government’s Zero Emission Vehicle Strategy 2022-30 set a target for 80 to 90% of new vehicles sales to be zero emission vehicles by 2030. Updated modelling by GHD [PDF 7.2MB] was completed in 2023 to test the impacts of these targets on the ACT transition, with updated energy pricing forecasts.

The updated modelling reflects the ACT’s target of 80% of new light vehicle sales being electric vehicles by 2030. The previous modelling assumed only 28% of new sales would be electric vehicles by 2030. Other factors are kept consistent with the earlier GHD model.

The modelling found that the increased rate of electric vehicle adoption had only a relatively small impact on the grid. The results from this modelling are positive. However, work will continue to ensure that energy from the grid stays reliable and affordable for Canberrans during the transition.

The ACT Government commissioned Deloitte to investigate the skills needed for the ACT to transition to. The report identifies industry sectors which will be most affected by the transition, including those with increased demand such as electrical trades, and those which are most likely to be disrupted such as gasfitters. This report helped the Government to develop its approach to enabling the IEP by transitioning the ACT workforce.

Read more about the ACT Energy Transition Skills Modelling (prepared by Deloitte) [PDF 1.0 MB].

The ACT Government commissioned GPA to identify commercial and industrial activities within the ACT and their current stationary fossil fuel demand and use. The scope also included determining the capacity to transition these activities to electricity or to accommodate green gas alternatives if required. The report found that 93% of all appliances were assessed as “straightforward” or “minor difficulty” to electrify and several appliance types may need to consider a green gas alternative.

The ACT Government is encouraged that business and industry continue to trial and look for new and emerging solutions to the challenges of transition. The Integrated Energy Plan commits Government to continue to work with these stakeholders on transition options.

Read more about the Green Gas Alternatives for the ACT’s Commercial and Industrial Sector (prepared by GPA Engineering) [PDF 5.7 MB].

The ACT Government commissioned Energeia and Aurecon to model the impacts of potential policy pathways for the electrification of existing gas appliances and to evaluate their costs and benefits. The report found that for each suite of policies the benefits of electrification were greater than their costs. This analysis helped to inform the Government on beneficial policy inclusions for the IEP and supported the guiding priority of a clear and implementable pathway. The costs and benefits of different approaches to decommissioning the gas network were also examined in the report to support long term network planning.

The recommendations of the report informed the direction of the IEP, which included a suite of policies, prioritised those most in need, and targeted training subsidies to priority trades supporting the energy transition. The IEP also committed Government to develop policy and regulatory frameworks to support safe, efficient and equitable decommissioning of the gas network.

Read more about the Gas Transition Pathway to Net Zero (prepared by Energeia and Aurecon) [PDF 5.7 MB].

The ACT Government commissioned GHD Pty Ltd to analyse the risks, technical opportunities and constraints related to the electrification of the residential gas network to support policy development ahead of the AER 2026 gas access arrangement for Evoenergy. The decommissioning of the residential mains gas network is a complex issue that needs to consider public safety, economic efficiency and social equity.

The risk assessment has been conducted independently by GHD. Evoenergy does not agree with all of the risk ratings and findings of this report and has conducted its own separate Formal Safety Assessment processes.

Read more about the Gas connection decommissioning (abolishment) technical review [PDF 3.1 MB]

Additional reports that informed the decision

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Acknowledgement of Country

We acknowledge the Ngunnawal people as traditional custodians of the ACT and recognise any other people or families with connection to the lands of the ACT and region. We acknowledge and respect their continuing culture and the contribution they make to the life of this city and this region.